December Economic Update The Month in Brief.The Dow climbed 6.51% in November, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were nearly as hot. Gold prices reached new highs, and home sales numbers were impressive. A recovery appeared certifiably underway, albeit the kind that featured an occasional step back. A debt crisis in Dubai only rattled stocks momentarily. Data showed consumer spending increasing, and Black Friday wasn’t bleak. Domestic economic health. Had unemployment peaked? The jobless rate came down to 10.0% in November from October’s 10.2% mark. As for next year, Federal Reserve policymakers predicted unemployment of 9.3-9.7% by 4Q 2010 – better, but hardly a forecast to celebrate. However, the great news in the November jobless stats was that payrolls only contracted by 11,000 positions – the economy seemed on the verge of creating jobs again. The recovery was progressing, in fits and starts. We learned that consumer spending increased by 0.7% and wages increased by 0.2% in October. The Black Friday weekend was solid, if not spectacular; National Retail Federation research gauged online and brick-and-mortar retail traffic at 195 million versus 2008’s 172 million. However, the average shopper spent $343.31 this Thanksgiving weekend compared to $372.57 a year ago. Turning to services and manufacturing, factory orders increased in October for the sixth month out of seven (+0.6%) while October durable goods orders fell (-0.6%). The Institute for Supply Management’s November service sector index showed contraction (48.7 as opposed to a 50.6 reading in October) and its manufacturing index slipped from October’s 55.7 mark to 53.6 last month – still showing growth. After October declines, the two notable consumer confidence indexes presented a mixed bag: the Conference Board index went to 49.5 in November from 48.7 in October, but the Reuters/University of Michigan survey finalized at 67.4 for the month, down from 70.6 in October. We learned consumer prices had risen 0.3% in October, with core CPI +0.2%; that last figure put core CPI at +1.7% for the past 12 months of data, squarely within the Federal Reserve’s inflation target zone. Global economic health. All kinds of 3Q data were now available. Perhaps the cheeriest news was that the Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% in the third quarter – the first positive quarter in the last six. German’s economy grew by 0.7%. Out of the major European economies, only the United Kingdom and Spain remained in recession. The Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, forecast GDP of +1.6% for 2010 and +1.2% for 2011 after a -4.9% showing for 2009. Aided by a government stimulus and $1.3 trillion in loans, China ’s economy expanded by a record 8.9% in the third quarter. While data arrived showing Japan’s economy posting its second straight quarter of growth, the International Monetary Fund estimated the nation’s GDP would shrink by 5.4% for 2009. Turning to the third and fourth largest economies in Asia, India’s economy grew by 7.9% for the third quarter, while South Korea’s economy grew by 3.2%. World financial markets. The DAX led the way among major European indices with a 5.0% November gain. England’s FTSE 100 climbed 4.0% and France’s CAC 40 rose 3.2%. Among European indices of note, only the ISEQ ( Ireland) posted a November loss. Turning to the Pacific, the Shanghai Composite went +3.4% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was -2.8% last month. The Singapore STRAITS Times was up 4.2%. The Australian All-Ordinaries took a 1.1% November loss. It was not a good month for the Nikkei 225, which dropped 9.5%. Eyeing emerging markets, Brazil’s Bovespa had the hottest month of any notable index (+9.0%). India’s Sensex was +4.6% as the month drew to a close, and Russia’s RTS was up 8.3% (and more than 130% YTD). 18 The MSCI World Index gained 2.88% last month, earning a +18.57% YTD mark. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 3.24%, leaving it up +52.48% YTD. Commodities markets. When November ended, gold had settled at $1,181.10 per ounce (on its way to $1,200 in early December). The precious metal gained a jaw-dropping 13.60% ($141.40 per ounce) in November, its biggest monthly dollar gain since 1980. On November 30, gold was +33.67% YTD with a 24.10% cumulative gain across September, October and November. Copper gained 6.82% last month, bringing it to +125.70% YTD. Silver ended November +62.99% YTD, platinum +55.47% YTD and palladium +98.37% YTD. Oil prices rose $0.28 in November to $77.28 per barrel, which left oil +73.27% for 2009 YTD. At November’s end, oil prices had risen 11.27% across the last four months. Looking at farm commodities, wheat prices rose nearly 25% during the month and orange juice prices rose nearly 29%. Among notable ag futures, only cattle and sugar finished negative for the month. Housing & interest rates. With buyers rushing to qualify for potentially expiring tax credits and mortgage rates at or near record lows, the residential real estate market heated up. A rush of buyers in the South put new home sales at +6.2% for October, while existing home sales leapt north by 10.1%. On the downside, housing starts dropped 10.6% in October to the lowest level since April. On the upside, pending home sales rose again: +3.7% in October, 32% above levels a year before. Interest rates on 30-year FRMs moved even lower. On November 25, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey had the national average at 4.78%, matching the record low set in April. Interest rates on 15-year FRMs were averaging4.29%, 5/1-year ARMs 4.18%, and 1-year ARMs 4.35% at that date. Major indexes. The Dow gained for the fifth straight month to close November at 10,344.84. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ respectively concluded the month at 1,095.63 and 2,144.60.
(Source: CNBC.com, ustreas.gov, 11/30/09) Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. May Outlook. Will we see a Santa Claus rally to top off a great year for stocks? Optimists see no reason why it shouldn’t happen; pessimists counter with concerns that individuals are carrying too much debt, that the rally doesn’t correspond with the current business climate, and that the economic recovery wouldn’t have happened without federal help. If you see the glass as half-full (three-quarters full?), you can look at all the corporate profits that have surpassed expectations, low interest rates and a weak dollar, and ongoing indicators showing real signs of recovery. Whether a correction is in the offing or not, stocks have had an amazing year – and shown us another lesson about the value of staying invested. |
Monday, December 14, 2009
December Economic Update
Monday, November 23, 2009
Year-End Financial Moves to Think About
Before 2009 ends, some things you might want to consider.
Thanksgiving is the time to consider some year-end financial moves – little and not-so-little things you might do to plan to improve your financial position.
You could put more in your 401(k) before they play “Auld Lang Syne”. As you only get one chance to save for retirement and an annual deadline to make retirement plan contributions, you could increase your final retirement plan deferrals of 2009 to the maximum allowed by your plan, assuming your finances permit you to do so. Contributions to traditional IRAs and 401(k)s are usually made with pre-tax dollars and thereby could help you reduce your tax bill.
If you haven’t contributed to your IRA or Roth IRA for 2009, you have until April 15, 2010 to make that move. You can contribute up to $5,000 to an IRA (or spread up to $5,000 of contributions across multiple IRAs) for tax year 2009; those over age 50 may contribute up to $6,000 to their IRAs for 2009. If your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is into six figures, this may reduce or even prohibit Roth IRA contributions depending on your filing status.
You could try to harvest some losses. You might want to sell some losers to offset some winners (not every security was a winner this year) and counterbalance capital gains. Keep in mind that if you are in the 10% or 15% federal income tax bracket for 2009, you won’t have to pay capital gains tax – that break extends into the 2010 tax year as well. If you want to sell, sell carefully – you don’t want to generate so much income that you creep into a higher tax bracket.
You could try to pick up some tax credits. Are you thinking about buying a home? The up-to-$8,000 first-time homebuyer credit has been extended to the end of April and complemented by its new variant, the up-to-$6,500 credit for move-up buyers. Remember, the phase-out limits on that credit just rose – they are now $125,000 for single filers, and $225,000 for joint filers. The home has to have a price tag of $800,000 or less and it must be your primary residence. A first-time homebuyer is defined as someone who hasn’t owned a home within the past three years; a move-up buyer is defined as a buyer who has lived in the same primary residence for a stretch of five consecutive years or longer.
Spend that FSA money. Do you have a Flexible Savings Account for your healthcare expenses? Think about getting some new glasses or braces, or find some way to use that money – money you might lose after December 31, unless your employer allows you the extended-access option to your 2009 FSA funds (in which case you’ll still have to use them by March 15 of next year).
Sit down with Kendall Capital for a portfolio review. Think about next year, and what you might do as the economic recovery progresses. Discuss some of the different aspects of your financial situation. If you want a better understanding of where you are at financially, this is the chance to gain it.
Thanksgiving is the time to consider some year-end financial moves – little and not-so-little things you might do to plan to improve your financial position.
You could put more in your 401(k) before they play “Auld Lang Syne”. As you only get one chance to save for retirement and an annual deadline to make retirement plan contributions, you could increase your final retirement plan deferrals of 2009 to the maximum allowed by your plan, assuming your finances permit you to do so. Contributions to traditional IRAs and 401(k)s are usually made with pre-tax dollars and thereby could help you reduce your tax bill.
If you haven’t contributed to your IRA or Roth IRA for 2009, you have until April 15, 2010 to make that move. You can contribute up to $5,000 to an IRA (or spread up to $5,000 of contributions across multiple IRAs) for tax year 2009; those over age 50 may contribute up to $6,000 to their IRAs for 2009. If your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is into six figures, this may reduce or even prohibit Roth IRA contributions depending on your filing status.
You could try to harvest some losses. You might want to sell some losers to offset some winners (not every security was a winner this year) and counterbalance capital gains. Keep in mind that if you are in the 10% or 15% federal income tax bracket for 2009, you won’t have to pay capital gains tax – that break extends into the 2010 tax year as well. If you want to sell, sell carefully – you don’t want to generate so much income that you creep into a higher tax bracket.
You could try to pick up some tax credits. Are you thinking about buying a home? The up-to-$8,000 first-time homebuyer credit has been extended to the end of April and complemented by its new variant, the up-to-$6,500 credit for move-up buyers. Remember, the phase-out limits on that credit just rose – they are now $125,000 for single filers, and $225,000 for joint filers. The home has to have a price tag of $800,000 or less and it must be your primary residence. A first-time homebuyer is defined as someone who hasn’t owned a home within the past three years; a move-up buyer is defined as a buyer who has lived in the same primary residence for a stretch of five consecutive years or longer.
Spend that FSA money. Do you have a Flexible Savings Account for your healthcare expenses? Think about getting some new glasses or braces, or find some way to use that money – money you might lose after December 31, unless your employer allows you the extended-access option to your 2009 FSA funds (in which case you’ll still have to use them by March 15 of next year).
Sit down with Kendall Capital for a portfolio review. Think about next year, and what you might do as the economic recovery progresses. Discuss some of the different aspects of your financial situation. If you want a better understanding of where you are at financially, this is the chance to gain it.
Friday, November 13, 2009
No Social Security Income Increase in 2010
SSI will remain flat for the first year since 1975. Social Security benefits are keyed to inflation. So what happens when year-over-year inflation becomes negative? No cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) occurs to increase your Social Security income. On October 15, the Social Security Administration announced that there would be no COLA for 2010. (The 2009 SSI COLA was 5.8%, the largest boost since 1992.)
From September 2008 to September 2009, overall CPI fell by 1.3%. Across that span, overall food prices actually fell 0.2% and prices on dairy products and fruits and vegetables respectively dropped 9.5% and 6.4%. Food prices only account for about a seventh of CPI, and rents actually constitute about 40% of the “prices” measured by core CPI. In September, rents fell in the United States for the first time since 1992. (We also have a decline in retail gasoline prices from last fall to this fall.)
With year-over-year inflation negative, the SSA has no logical reason for a COLA. Yet roughly two-thirds of America’s seniors live on less than $20,000 a year, some entirely on SSI.
Another stimulus check? President Obama is urging Congress to authorize one-time $250 stimulus payments to Social Security and Supplemental Security income recipients, veterans, railroad retirees and government retirees. That $250 would equal about 2% of the average annual SSI benefit for a retiree. These checks would be mailed sometime in 2010 to about 57 million people. Recipients could not qualify for multiple checks.
Retirement plan contribution limits will stay the same. These are also inflation-indexed. On October 15, the Internal Revenue Service chimed in with a statement that 401(k) contribution limits will remain at $16,500 for 2010. The maximum contribution limits for other types of defined-contribution and defined-benefit retirement plans will also remain the same for 2010.
While we’re referencing the IRS, some other important figures aren’t changing next year. The standard deduction will remain at $11,400 and $5,700 for joint and single filers; it will go up $50 to $8,400 next year for heads of household. The yearly gift tax exclusion will stay at $13,000 for 2010, and the value of a personal exemption will remain at $3,650.
No COLA … but more purchasing power? A former deputy Social Security commissioner who now works for the conservative American Enterprise Institute contends that the average retiree will actually have $725 more in purchasing power in 2010 thanks to falling prices and the freeze in Medicare Part B premiums (which will not increase in 2010 for most Social Security recipients). A senior policy analyst for the non-partisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities told the Christian Science Monitor that if Social Security income was wholly determined by consumer prices, SSI recipients would have their checks cut by 2.1% next year.
From September 2008 to September 2009, overall CPI fell by 1.3%. Across that span, overall food prices actually fell 0.2% and prices on dairy products and fruits and vegetables respectively dropped 9.5% and 6.4%. Food prices only account for about a seventh of CPI, and rents actually constitute about 40% of the “prices” measured by core CPI. In September, rents fell in the United States for the first time since 1992. (We also have a decline in retail gasoline prices from last fall to this fall.)
With year-over-year inflation negative, the SSA has no logical reason for a COLA. Yet roughly two-thirds of America’s seniors live on less than $20,000 a year, some entirely on SSI.
Another stimulus check? President Obama is urging Congress to authorize one-time $250 stimulus payments to Social Security and Supplemental Security income recipients, veterans, railroad retirees and government retirees. That $250 would equal about 2% of the average annual SSI benefit for a retiree. These checks would be mailed sometime in 2010 to about 57 million people. Recipients could not qualify for multiple checks.
Retirement plan contribution limits will stay the same. These are also inflation-indexed. On October 15, the Internal Revenue Service chimed in with a statement that 401(k) contribution limits will remain at $16,500 for 2010. The maximum contribution limits for other types of defined-contribution and defined-benefit retirement plans will also remain the same for 2010.
While we’re referencing the IRS, some other important figures aren’t changing next year. The standard deduction will remain at $11,400 and $5,700 for joint and single filers; it will go up $50 to $8,400 next year for heads of household. The yearly gift tax exclusion will stay at $13,000 for 2010, and the value of a personal exemption will remain at $3,650.
No COLA … but more purchasing power? A former deputy Social Security commissioner who now works for the conservative American Enterprise Institute contends that the average retiree will actually have $725 more in purchasing power in 2010 thanks to falling prices and the freeze in Medicare Part B premiums (which will not increase in 2010 for most Social Security recipients). A senior policy analyst for the non-partisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities told the Christian Science Monitor that if Social Security income was wholly determined by consumer prices, SSI recipients would have their checks cut by 2.1% next year.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
November Economic Update
The month in brief. Questions about the strength and speed of the recovery hampered stocks by Halloween, although positive economic news continued to surface. The service sector and the manufacturing sector were both growing; consumer spending, however, was lagging. It was a fine month for most hard assets, and a mixed month for global financial markets. Finally, one notable statistic seemed to indicate the recession was done.
Domestic economic health. Let’s get to that statistic. The Commerce Department announced the 3Q preliminary GDP: +3.5%. U.S. GDP had not been so strong since 3Q 2007. America’s longest stretch of economic contraction since 1947 was history.
Backing up that statistic, we had the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index hit 55.7 in October (a 3½-year high point) after a 52.6 in September (anything over 50 equals growth). We saw the ISM service sector index turn positive for the first time in a year, coming in at 50.9 for September with its new orders index at 54.2. The Federal Reserve informed us that industrial production went up by 5.2% in the third quarter – the best quarter in four years, and the first positive quarter since the recession began.
As for consumers, prices and purchases, the data was mixed. Personal spending fell 0.6% in September, even as durable goods orders rose by 1.0%. Retail sales were down 1.5% for that month, but up 0.5% minus automotive purchases (economists felt the decline was partly due to the end of the C.A.R.S. program). Year-over-year inflation was still negative: from September 2008 to September 2009, CPI fell 1.3% (though core CPI rose 1.5%). CPI rose 0.2% for September.
Both notable consumer confidence indices declined in October – the Conference Board index dipped to 47.7 from a 53.4 in September. The Reuters survey went from 73.5 in September to 70.6 at the end of last month. With unemployment at 9.8% in September, it was understandable. Economists discussed the possibility of the Fed raising the key interest rate – in fact, a few even called for it – but there was no hint of a shift in Fed policy.
Global economic health. Evidence showed that manufacturing was picking up abroad as well as in the U.S. The Eurozone’s manufacturing sector expanded in October for the first time since April 2008. China’s Purchasing Manufacturers Index hit 55.4 in October, an 18-month peak. England’s PMI also showed growth, and so did the PMIs in India and South Korea. The International Monetary Fund adjusted its growth forecast for the Asia Pacific region up about 1.5% - it predicted 2009 growth of 2.8% and 2010 growth of 5.8%.
The jobless rate in the Eurozone was 9.7% in September; consumer prices fell for the fifth straight month, nice for shoppers but certainly not indicating demand. New data showed the EU economy shrank 0.2% in the second quarter.
World financial markets. Emerging markets fared better than indices in Europe and the U.S. The DAX descended 4.58% in October, and the CAC 40 fell 4.98%. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 lost 1.74% for the month. The Nikkei 225 lost 0.97%, the Australian All Ordinaries 1.95%, and the Kospi ( South Korea) lost 5.53%. As for gains, the Hang Seng rose 3.81% and the Shanghai Composite ascended 7.79%. Argentina’s MERVAL rose 2.06% and the Bovespa gained 0.02% in Brazil. 15 MSCI’s World Index and Emerging Markets Index were both down for the month, respectively losing 2.31% and 0.49% for October.
Commodities markets. Oil prices rose 9.05% last month, ending October at $77.00 per barrel. Natural gas futures advanced 4.21% in October, leaving that commodity at -10.26% YTD through October’s end. Diesel futures gained 7.41% in October, putting them up 41.00% for the year. Turning to metals, silver actually lost ground last month (-2.42%) but gold did just fine (+3.08%). Copper could not be stopped – copper futures were +4.84% in October and (are you sitting down?) +109.61% across the first ten months of the year. Palladium has done exceptionally well, too: +8.04% for October, making it +71.30% YTD. The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.34% in October.
One crop has done almost as well as copper this year: sugar. Sugar futures fell 5.56% in October, but that left them up 92.89% for 2009. Orange juice futures rose 26.17% last month.
Housing & interest rates. The latest existing, new and pending home sales numbers were mostly encouraging. First the downside: according to the Commerce Department, new home sales fell 3.6% in September, a decline many chalked up to the looming potential expiration of the $8,000 first-time buyer credit offered by the federal government. Existing home sales rocketed north 9.4% in September, marking gains in five of the last six months of data. Pending home sales (like existing home sales, monitored by the National Association of Realtors) were up 6.1% in September after a 6.4% rise in August, marking the eighth month in a row of improvement. Construction spending also increased by 0.8% in September.
Let’s see what Freddie Mac found when it came to surveying U.S. mortgage rates. On October 1, the national average interest rate for a 30-year FRM was 4.94%. By October 29, it was 5.03%. Average rates on 15-year FRMs also rose slightly in that time frame, from 4.36% to 4.46%. The 5/1-year ARM? No change, a 4.42% average interest rate in both surveys. As for the 1-year ARM, the average rate on that loan type moved north from 4.49% to 4.57%.
Major indexes. The Dow hit a 2009 high of 10,119.47 in October, but finished the month with only a miniscule gain; the NASDAQ and S&P 500 both slipped. It was a challenging month for stocks, unusual as Octobers go. At month’s end, the major indices were still showing impressive gains off their March lows – the DJIA, +48.4%; the NASDAQ, +61.2%; the S&P 500, +53.2%.
Source: CNBC.com, 10/30/09
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses,
and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends
November outlook. It has been a decidedly unconventional year on Wall Street – and thankfully, a very positive one. The S&P 500 actually managed a small gain across the September-October period – a stretch that is often rough on stocks.
Historically, November and December have been pretty good months for Wall Street, but we have just seen a half-year rally. Interest rates are expected to remain at record lows into 2010, which would help keep the dollar weak, though, volatility has reared its head again recently; on November 2, the Dow had closed with either a 100-point rise or fall in six of its last seven trading sessions.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
